Darkest Before The Dawn
Last week’s numbers were all good. The Dow continued to climb off the mat in what is now a four month rally. Existing Home Sales are up for the fourth month in a row, owing largely to the effectiveness of the first time buyer tax credit. Tne Index of Leading Indicators has come off its bottom to an extent (12 percent) that always coincides with the end of a recession or precedes the end by a month. It seems that this recession is at an end. Even the most cautious of economists talk about “bumping along” a bottom. So why does everyone feel so bad? The answer primarily lies in two factors. First, the employment market is horrific. We are still shedding jobs at a rate that is troubling. When you see your friends lose their jobs, you can’t be optimistic about your own. The second factor is that a bottom is a bottom. It’s the lowest point and the point where all the accumulated ills of the past 21 months bring their full weight on top of us. So, feel good about tomorrow and spread the news, but don’t wonder why others are not jumping for joy.



