I Heard The News Today, Oh Boy
The October numbers for employment were disappointing. We lost nearley 120,00 jobs, and the unemployment rate rose above 10. This was the twenty-second consecutive month of job losses, but, in a shorter time frame, the jobs picture is getting less bad each month. We would hope–and I expect–that we will be creating jobs by next summer. All this comes a day after the Congress renewed and expanded the home buyer tax credit, an event that provoked huge rejoicing in the real estate community. But this is not necessarily good news. Given the overhang of excessive new construction and the number of distressed properties, the credit does not constitute additional stimulus to the economy, and is at the least a very expensive way to subsidize real estate. Since history shows that we get more of what we subsidize, I would have thought that we learned the effects of too much building and buying during the last boom. By pushing real estate now, more importantly, we are setting up increasingly severe cycles down the road. As far as the industry is concerned, what happens when the real estate sector hasn’t responded by next June? Do we go and beg for more Federal handouts? And what about commercial real estate? That part of the industry is slumping and will continue to do so. How about a commercial buyer tax credit? We are on the road to becoming an industry fully dependent on the moods of Congress for survival. I, for one, don’t want to go near that.


