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More Straws in the Wind, Part 2

11 June 2009 by John Tuccillo Please wait View Comments

On June 11, USA Today unveiled an index it has commissioned from an economic consulting firm. The index, composed of seven indicators, suggests that the recession will end in September. In addition, the Federal Reserve Beige Book for May showed the decline slowing in many parts of the country. I agree with all this and have been saying the recession would end in late summer for some time now. I also think that the real estate market is ahead of the economy. What do you need to do now in light of the imminent return to growth? Essentially, you need to point out to the consumers with whom you work that it doesn’t get any better than this. House prices are bottoming out as you read this, the timer on the first time buyer credit is ticking and rates are as low as we’ll see them for some time. This last part is the cloud behind the silver lining (economist always seem to have a cloud handy, don’t they?) The USA Today index includes one indicator that suggests that interest rates will be rising in the future. This is as sure a thing as we can find now. By next spring, mortgage rates are likely to be up a full point. Make sure your clients and customers get on that train before it leaves the station.

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