Our National ADD
USA Today reports tha 57 percent of Americans don’t see the stimulus working. If I were polled, I would have answered (presuming such a choice existed) “Yes, but”. The stimulus has not yet done very much to boost the economy (although the bottom has indeed been reached) because of two factors, one intended and one unexpected. When the stimulus plan was presented and was being discussed, it was reviewed by Congessional Budget Office analysts. They concluded that only ten percent of the effect of the stimulus would be felt in 2009, 60 percent in 2010 and the remainder in succeeding years. So, yes, most of the stimulus is not being seen, but it will be. This was expected. The unexpected factor causing such a delayed turning point is the reluctance of banks to lend the money provided to them by the Federal Reserve. Right ow there is an estimated $800 billion dollars of liquid reserves in commercial banks. That money was intended to stimulate the economy yet banks sit on it and it does nothing to help. More importantly, when the economy begins to recover, the Fed will have to neutralize these reserve to prevent an upsurge of inflation, so they may never help. In other words, the fiscal part of the stimulus is on schedule, although not fast enough for most people, but the monetary side is failing.

