The Tipping Point
Coral reefs don’t just appear. Rather, they grow underwater until large enough to break the surface and, perhaps, become substantial enough to be islands. We notice them only then, but in fact they had been there all along. If you haven’t read Malcolm Gladwell’s book, The Tipping Point, by all means do so….quickly, because like the coral reef, the housing market is about to break the surface. The first time buyer tax credit, low rates and the ready availability of lower prices are causing the market to emerge from its doldrums and once again contribute to economic growth. To get a feel for this, focus on inventories. In virtually all markets, the inventory to sales ratios are dropping meaning fewer and fewer new listings are coming on the market. And, yes, there are more foreclosures coming, but they will be more than offset by increased sales. This will transition in a reduction of days on the market and finally a rise in the ratio of selling price to list price. When all that happens, it will be too late for bargain hunters.


