Well, you didn’t think it was going to be easy, did you? The August existing home sales numbers are down, after six up months. This is not a troubling sign, but rather one that is to be expected as this economy and this housing market groan and claw and scratch their way out of the slough of despond that was the market over the past three years. We need to have some perspective here. Housing cycles (measured by sales not prices) last on average five years. So, if the turnaround is real, and it certainly will be by 2010, this was an average length downturn. The issue with the real estate market, like the issue with the economy, was not the slump in activity, but the extraordinary loss of wealth that accompanied it. Home prices will continue to fall (generally–ther have been gains in some price ranges and in some geographic areas) for the next six to nine months, a product of both a slow housing recovery and the hangover of distressed properties. But, with all that, the market appears to be back. The economy will grow slowly, the jobs picture will brighten and stimulus spending will become a greater part of economic activity. The wild card here is the degree to which the housing turnaround is a product of the first time buyer tax credit. If it is, then we will see sales continue to dip after October. Of course, the optimum is that we never find out the answer to this question because the credit is renewed. This is an outcome we can all work towards.