Most infomercials cover themselves with a tag line that goes, “Past results are no indicator of future results. Results may vary depending on the individual”. This is meant to explain why you didn’t lose 30 pounds in a week, or double your portfolio in a month, even though you bought that diet pill or ordered that DVD. So it is with economic statistics. It’s easy to tell what’s going on when everything is going the same way at the same time. But as we learned several years ago past results do not predict the future. In fact, when the numbers are clashing, you should pick up your ears, because they only clash when the economy is shifting gears. Like now. Yesterday’s employment numbers seemed to throw a glitch into hopes for a recovery. Yes, job losses were unexpectedly large and this put a tremor into the stock market rally and apoplexy into the media. In context, this was one piece of bad news in an environment filled with both good and bad. Employment went down more than expected? Well, consumer confidence and pending home sales are up. You see how it goes. What you can glean form the labor numbers is that the times they are a’changin’. And in this world, that’s a good sign. Happy 4th!

P.S. Job losses exceeded expectations in June by about the same number they fell short of expectations in May. Averaged out, we’re right on track!