May existing home sales are in and they’re up. But, because the median price is down, and because one-third of all sales were distressed properties (of course, these last two statements are directly related), “analysts”–here defined as Wall Street economists whose business it is to sell assets that are alternatives to real estate–will not believe that the real estate market is clearly on its way back. Additionally, they fear that the banks are holding back massive amounts of foreclosed properties and regular sellers are keeping their properties off the market. Thier reasoning says that when these properties are released, the market will go into a seconf free fall. This is utter tripe, and anyone who knows anything about how real estate markets work will recognize it as such. Yes, prices will continue to fall, because they always trail sales and we do have a lot of distressed property sales. It’s also logical for property owners who don’t have to sell to keep their real estate off the market until the market improrves. In other words what we’re seeng is logical behavior in a market on the cusp of recovery. This point is underlined by the fact that inventories are falling and now stand at under ten months nationally (6.5 months is the hallmark of a balanced market). So ignore the “experts” and tel your clients and customers that the market has turned and that better times are on the way.